Conserving Nature's Stage
Building Resilience on a Changing Planet
In a world of rapid change, protecting the abiotic stage may be our most strategic move for saving biodiversity.
Imagine a stage where the backdrop is constantly shifting, the lighting changes unpredictably, and the floor beneath the actors' feet continually transforms. This is not a description of an avant-garde theater production but the reality facing Earth's species as they navigate the challenges of climate change and habitat transformation. As species redistribute and biotic communities reorganize, the fundamental question becomes: how do we conserve biodiversity when the very conditions that support it are in flux?
The answer may lie not in focusing solely on the actors—the plants and animals themselves—but in protecting the stage upon which the drama of evolution plays out. This revolutionary approach to conservation, known as "conserving nature's stage," emphasizes safeguarding a diversity of abiotic conditions—the physical and chemical foundations like climate, landforms, and soil types that support living organisms. By securing these fundamental elements, we create resilient environments where biodiversity can adapt and persist through coming changes 2 .
The Theory Behind the Stage: Why Abiotic Diversity Matters
The concept of conserving nature's stage has deep roots in ecological science, tracing back to Alexander von Humboldt's early observations of the concordance between abiotic conditions and vegetation patterns. This relationship forms the basis of the ecological niche—the specific range of conditions in which a species can persist and reproduce 2 .
The 'conserving nature's stage' framework offers a proactive alternative: by protecting a diverse array of physical settings, we conserve the potential for future biodiversity, whatever form it may take 2 .
This strategy is particularly powerful in places where abiotic drivers strongly influence species distributions, where the diversity of abiotic settings will be conserved through time, and where connectivity allows movement among areas with different conditions. In such environments, protecting the physical stage enables ecological and evolutionary processes to continue functioning, supporting species as they adapt to changing conditions 2 .
Stable Foundation
Abiotic conditions generally change more slowly than biotic distributions, providing a more stable foundation for long-term conservation planning 2 .
Climate Refugia
Landforms and geology directly influence microclimates, creating refugia where species can survive regional climate changes 2 .
Evolutionary Processes
By conserving environmental diversity, we maintain the evolutionary processes that generate biodiversity, rather than simply preserving its current pattern 2 .
Nature's Challenges: A Laboratory for Resilience
Around the world, researchers are translating the theory of 'conserving nature's stage' into practical solutions for building resilience against natural hazards and environmental change. In New Zealand, the Resilience to Nature's Challenges National Science Challenge represents a comprehensive effort to accelerate natural hazard resilience through innovative, collaborative science 1 .
This decade-long research initiative has addressed critical questions about how communities can better prepare for and recover from natural disasters. Their work recognizes that building resilience requires understanding both the physical processes of natural hazards and the social, economic, and ecological systems they impact 1 .
Case Study: Modeling Flood Probability Under Levee Breaching
Among the many research initiatives under this challenge, one crucial experiment focused on developing a framework for modelling the probability of flooding under levee breaching 1 . This work addresses the growing flood risks faced by communities worldwide, particularly as climate change intensifies precipitation patterns.
Methodology: A Step-by-Step Approach
Topographic and Hydrological Data Collection
Researchers gathered high-resolution elevation data, soil characteristics, and historical hydrological records from the study region.
Levee Strength Assessment
They conducted field surveys and laboratory analyses to evaluate the structural integrity and failure potential of existing levee systems.
Breach Scenario Development
Using the assessment data, the team modeled multiple breach scenarios under different rainfall and river discharge conditions.
Flood Simulation
For each breach scenario, they simulated flood propagation across the landscape using advanced hydrodynamic models.
Probability Mapping
The results from multiple scenarios were integrated to create probability maps showing flood likelihood across the study area.
This systematic approach allowed the researchers to move beyond single-scenario predictions toward a probabilistic understanding of flood risk that accounts for both the likelihood of levee failure and the potential consequences.
Results and Analysis: Beyond Simple Predictions
The research yielded several critical findings that enhance our understanding of flood dynamics:
The modeling framework demonstrated that traditional flood maps, which typically show inundation zones for a limited set of return periods, significantly underestimate the complexity of flood risk. By incorporating levee breach probabilities, the research revealed secondary flow paths and previously unidentified vulnerability zones 1 .
Perhaps most importantly, the results highlighted that the highest water levels and most rapid flooding often occur immediately following a breach, rather than during peak river discharges. This insight has profound implications for emergency response planning and early warning systems 1 .
| Finding | Description | Practical Implications |
|---|---|---|
| Complex Flow Paths | Levee breaches create unexpected flooding patterns that diverge from natural floodplains | Evacuation routes and safety zones must account for these unconventional flow paths |
| Rapid Inundation | Highest water velocities and most dangerous conditions occur immediately after breach | Early warning systems must provide sufficient lead time before breaching occurs |
| Cumulative Effects | Multiple smaller breaches can collectively cause more damage than a single large breach | Levee maintenance should address systemic vulnerabilities rather than isolated weak points |
| Land Use Interaction | Flood severity significantly affected by urbanization patterns in floodplain | Land use planning must consider how development impacts flood dynamics |
The Global Biodiversity Perspective: City Nature Challenge
While researchers develop sophisticated models to understand natural hazards, a parallel global effort is engaging ordinary citizens in documenting biodiversity where they live. The City Nature Challenge is an international community science event that encourages people to find and document wildlife in their cities using the iNaturalist platform 3 4 .
What began in 2016 as a competition between Los Angeles and San Francisco has grown into a global movement. In its tenth anniversary in 2025, the challenge involved 102,945 people across 669 cities who made 3,310,131 observations and documented 73,765+ species, including more than 3,338 rare, endangered, or threatened species 3 .
This massive data collection effort does more than satisfy curiosity about urban wildlife—it provides critical baseline data that helps scientists track real-time changes in our planet's biodiversity. All research-grade observations from the challenge contribute to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), creating an expanding body of knowledge about how species are responding to urbanization and climate change 3 .
| Metric | 2025 Results | 10-Year Cumulative Results |
|---|---|---|
| Observations | 3,310,131 | 12,948,135 |
| Species Documented | 73,765+ | 113,320 |
| Participant Count | 102,945 | 363,723 |
| Rare/Endangered Species | 3,338+ | 7,138 |
| Participating Cities | 669 | - |
| Most Observed Species | Common Dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) | Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) |
Notable Discoveries from the 2025 Challenge
The City Nature Challenge continues to yield surprising insights into urban biodiversity:
Hemphill's Western Slug
In Los Angeles County, participants documented a Hemphill's Western slug (Hesperarion hemphilli), noted by experts as "one of our hard-to-find natives" and possibly "the only native slug to LA County" 3 .
Brahminy Blindsnake
Preschool children in the same region spotted a Brahminy blindsnake (Indotyphlops braminus), the smallest known snake species, demonstrating that valuable observations can come from citizens of all ages 3 .
Island Fox Subspecies
Four different subspecies of island fox were documented on different Channel Islands, highlighting the role of isolation in species differentiation—a key evolutionary process 3 .
These findings illustrate how community science initiatives complement more traditional research approaches, providing broad geographic coverage and engaging the public in the scientific process.
The Scientist's Toolkit: Essential Solutions for Resilience Research
Researchers working at the intersection of natural hazards, biodiversity, and resilience employ a diverse array of tools and approaches. The following table highlights key 'research reagent solutions'—both conceptual and technical—that enable scientists to understand and address nature's challenges.
| Tool/Solution | Function | Application Example |
|---|---|---|
| iNaturalist Platform | Mobile and web application for recording biodiversity observations | City Nature Challenge: enables global community science data collection 3 |
| Probabilistic Hazard Models | Mathematical frameworks for estimating event probabilities under uncertainty | Flood probability modeling under levee breaching scenarios 1 |
| Real Options Analysis | Decision-making approach for conditions of deep uncertainty and changing climate risk | Novel applications in New Zealand for adapting to changing climate risks 1 |
| Abiotic Diversity Mapping | Spatial analysis of physical and chemical environmental variation | Identifying areas with diverse topographic and microclimatic conditions for conservation 2 |
| Psychosocial Recovery Frameworks | Structured approaches to addressing mental health impacts post-disaster | Guidance for addressing immediate psychosocial distress after natural hazards 1 |
Global Participation in Biodiversity Monitoring (2016-2025)
Conclusion: An Integrated Future for Conservation and Resilience
As we face accelerating environmental change, the need for innovative approaches to conservation and resilience building has never been greater. The paradigm of 'conserving nature's stage' offers a promising framework for enabling biodiversity to persist and adapt, while initiatives like the City Nature Challenge demonstrate the power of engaging broad audiences in documenting and understanding these changes.
Perhaps most importantly, these diverse efforts remind us that building resilience is not about preventing change, but about developing the capacity to adapt, transform, and thrive in the face of it. By understanding the dynamic processes that shape our planet, protecting the foundational elements that support life, and engaging people worldwide in stewardship, we can work toward a future where both human communities and natural systems demonstrate resilience to nature's challenges.
As the Resilience Challenge researchers concluded after their ten-year investigation, accelerating natural hazard resilience requires ongoing innovation and collaboration—a conclusion that applies equally to the broader challenge of conserving biodiversity on a rapidly changing planet 1 .